Bill Oppenheim: Tough Sledding

It was never likely to be entirely smooth sailing at Fasig-Tipton's July Yearling Sale which kicked off the 2016 yearling sale season on Tuesday. The 2-year-old consignors found themselves with more supply than demand below the top at the 2-year-old sales this spring, and that had to impact the pinhookers' spend at a $100,000-average sale like Fasig July (or, should I say, in this case, an $86,000-average sale). This sale is among those to have added a Horses of Racing Age component over the last few years; this year 111 horses were catalogued to the Racing Age sale Monday evening, which included a 23-horse dispersal of mares, yearlings, and foals from Eutrophia Farm. The session totaled $5,084,500, up from $3,996,000 last year. Excluding the 22 through the ring from Eutrophia (all sold), 72% of the remaining 91 horses of racing age sent through the ring on Monday night were sold. The Eutrophia Dispersal grossed $1,673,000, the remaining 50 horses of racing age which sold grossed $3,411,500, down from last year's horses of racing age only, but that is really just an academic point: Monday's gross was up over $1-million compared to the corresponding session last year.

By contrast, only 62% of the 293 yearlings sent through the ring were listed as sold Tuesday; with withdrawals, only 52.7% (183) of the 347 yearlings catalogued were listed sales, compared to 61.7% in 2015. Nobody who was there, on either side of the equation, was under any illusions about why: strong top, no middle, no bottom. It was as competitive as always for 'the ones they want', but how many is that? When the bar is this high, it can mean only one thing: shortage of buyers. The foal crop has dropped 42% in ten years, from around 35,000 in 2005-2006 to just over 20,000 now, so the conclusion must be that the pool of buyers is shrinking even faster than the foal crop.

But one group which seemingly never goes out of favor are first-crop sires, and they were once again in favor at Fasig-Tipton on Tuesday, as 15 first-crop sires (F2015, or first foals 2015) posted single sales or averages of $58,000 or higher, including nine over $90,000. Claiborne's Orb (Malibu Moon) and Darley's Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux) were the two North American first-crop weanling sires to average over $100,000 in 2015, and they topped the table of North American first-crop yearling sires at Fasig July (click here), with one yearling apiece selling; Orb, who has eight yearlings catalogued for Fasig's showpiece Saratoga Yearling Sale next month, had one colt sell, for $190,000; while Animal Kingdom, who has three catalogued at Saratoga, had a filly bring $145,000.

Three other sires had one or two yearlings sell for or average six figures: Adena Springs' Point of Entry (Dynaformer; one filly for $135,000); Coolmore Ashford's Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday; two fillies averaged $119,000); and Florida's Bridlewood Farm's Corfu (Malibu Moon; one filly for $110,000). But worthy of special mention are the two first-crop yearling sires which had more than two sold and averaged six figures: Calumet Farm's 2013 GI Preakness S. winner Oxbow (Awesome Again) had five through the ring, five sell for an impressive $137,000 average from his first crop (sired at Taylor Made before he moved to Calumet); and Hill 'n' Dale Farm's Violence (Medaglia d'Oro) had six yearlings average $119,833. WinStar's Paynter (Awesome Again and a 3/4-brother to Oxbow) and Hill 'n' Dale's 2013 GI Breeders' Cup winner New Year's Day (Street Cry) each averaged $92,500, with four and two sold, respectively.

Saratoga Pending

The 2015 Saratoga Yearling Sale was an ambitious catalogue: Fasig-Tipton increased the number of yearlings catalogued by 25%, from 165 to 208, yet they were proved right as revenues jumped 40%, from $33.2-million to $46.7-million, and even the average increased, by 10% to $322,448. Now they are stepping up the numbers again, as 252 yearlings–an increase of 21%–are catalogued for this year's event, scheduled for August 8-9. That's a 53% increase in the number catalogued in two years–an ambitious target, to say the least.

If you're going to set ambitious targets, one ambition you definitely want to have is good representation by the leading sires, and the two top North American sires of 2016, Gainesway's Tapit and Coolmore Ashford's Uncle Mo, are tied for the highest representation by any sires, with 13 each. Seven Tapit yearlings averaged $885,000 at Saratoga last year, so say nine of them, and nine by Uncle Mo should go some way to keeping the sale ahead of whichever way the market is curving. A total of 14 sires have six or more among Saratoga's catalogue of 252 yearlings; these 14 have a total of 130 yearlings catalogued, over half the book. Besides 13 for Tapit and 13 for Uncle Mo, three sires have 12 catalogued each: Hill 'n' Dale's Curlin, now up to #5 on the TDN North American YTD General Sire List (Lane's End's #3 Candy Ride has six catalogued, their #4 City Zip has one, and Spendthrift's #6 Malibu Moon has nine); Spendthrift's Into Mischief, whose first big crop are 2-year-olds this year, also has 12 catalogued, as does Coolmore Ashford's late Scat Daddy. His six Saratoga yearlings averaged $450,000 last year; goodness knows what they will cost this year, since that particular factory is unfortunately now closed. Two of Darley's flagship sires are Bernardini and Medaglia d'Oro; Bernardini is currently ninth on the General Sire List and has nine catalogued; Medaglia D'Oro is tenth, and has 10 catalogued.

Last year's top first-year sires at Saratoga were Lane's End's The Factor and Union Rags, and WinStar's Bodemeister; all are back again, though their numbers are of course reduced as they make way for the new crop of contenders. The Factor and Bodemeister have six each in the catalogue; Union Rags has four. Leaders among sires with their first yearlings are Claiborne's Orb, the 2013 GI Kentucky Derby winner by Malibu Moon, with eight catalogued, as noted above; and Coolmore Ashford's Shanghai Bobby, the unbeaten 2012 Champion 2-Year-Old, who has seven from his first crop in the book. Darley's Animal Kingdom, Coolmore Ashford's Declaration of War, WinStar's Paynter, and Hill 'n' Dale's Violence have three yearlings catalogued each. Claiborne's War Front has four catalogued, while, from overseas sires, Coolmore's Galileo has three catalogued, and Juddmonte's Frankel, who has made such a promising start at stud, has two in the book, and yes, expect fireworks.